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Agriculture, water and land use

by Arancha Sánchez - published on , updated on

Agriculture et développement

[Content in progress]

Researchers: Bruno Dorin, Patrice Dumas, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Sébastien Treyer

PhD Student: William Dang

Management of water resources

The usual scales of water management are water basins and aquifers. Basins and aquifers, however, are linked through water transfers, trade (virtual water trade), activity and person relocations, electric networks or climatic phenomena. At CIRED, we develop a multiscale hydroeconomic modeling of water demand quantity and economic values evolution and coordinated reservoir management in a global change context. This modeling allows to quantify climate change impacts, trade offs between demands with rules on quantities or economic values, as well as pressures on activity locations changes. The ODDYCCEIA framework used in that context has been applied to the river basins flowing to the Mediterranean sea, as well as Algeria.


Neverre, N. and Dumas, P. (2015). Projecting and valuing domestic water use at regional scale: a generic method applied to the Mediterranean at the 2060 horizon. Water Resources and Economics, 11:33–46.
Portoghese, I., Bruno, E., Dumas, P., Guyennon, N., Hallegatte, S., Hourcade, J.-C., Nassopoulos, H., Pisacane, G., Struglia, M., and Vurro, M. (2013). Impacts of climate change on freshwater bodies: quantitative aspects. In Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean: Volume 1: Air, Sea and Precipitation and Water, volume 50 of Advances in Global Change Research, pages 241–306. A. Navarra and L. Tubiana, Dordrecht, springer science and business media edition.

Researchers : Patrice Dumas

Risk and Climate variability

CIRED is working on the link between climate and agriculture in Africa. Research works address various means to manage risks due to climate variability, including inventory credit (warrantage), index insurance and seasonal forecast. The impact of these policy tools on farmers food security and income is analyzed through random control trials, experimental economics and time series econometrics.

Other research works address the impact of climate on yields, including a meta-analysis of existing studies, a research work on millet and sorghum and different works on cotton. On-going methodological research works analyze the so-called “Ricardian approach” using cross section regressions to assess the economic impact of climate change and the limits of this method.

These works are lead together with other economists, agronomists, climate scientists, and farmers organizations in France (LOCEAN-IPSL, INRA), in Niger (Agrhymet), in Senegal (ISRA, CIRAD), in Burkina Faso (CPF), and United States (MSU).


Leblois, A., Quirion P. and Sultan B. 2014. Price vs. weather shock hedging for cash crops : ex ante evaluation for cotton producers in Cameroon, Ecological Economics 101:67-80
Leblois, A. and Quirion P., 2012. Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices : realizations, methods and research agenda, Meteorological Applications
Leblois A., Quirion P., Alhassane A., Traore S., 2013. Weather index drought insurance : an ex ante evaluation for millet growers in Niger. Environmental and Resource Economics, DOI : 10.1007/s10640-013-9641-3
Maître d’Hôtel E., Le Cotty T., and Jayne T., 2014. Trade Policy Inconsistency and Maize Price Volatility : An ARCH Approach in Kenya, African Development Review, Wiley-Blackwell, 2013, 25 (4), pp.607-620
Ndiaye M., Maître d’Hôtel E., Le Cotty T. 2015. Maize price volatility: Does market remoteness matter?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, N° 7202.
Roudier, P., Sultan B., Quirion P., Baron C., Alhassane A., Traoré S. and Muller B., 2012. An ex-ante valuation of seasonal forecasting for millet growers in SW Niger, International Journal of Climatology. 32(5) : 759-771.
Sultan, B., Roudier P., Quirion P., Alhassane A., Muller B., Dingkuhn M., Ciais P., Guimberteau M., Traore S. and Baron C., 2013. Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa. Environmental Research Letters 8(1)
Sultan, B., Roudier P., Quirion P., 2014. Les bénéfices de la prévision saisonnière pour l’agriculture en Afrique de l’Ouest. Sécheresse 24(4) : 304-313.

Researchers: Tristan Le Cotty, Philippe Quirion

Land-use changes, global environmental changes and biodiversity

To address the challenges of the agriculture and land-use sectors in the coming decades, the CIRED has developed a research program that aims at producing land and agricultural foresight analysis given the socio-demographic, climatic and energetic context. The objective is to assess the feasibility of scenarios of food consumption, agricultural practices and energetic and climatic policies for a time horizon ranging from 2020 to 2100, with a specific focus on possible positive or negative interactions between drivers.

Our work relies mostly on quantitative modeling tools, as they are able to provide a consistent framework to diagnose non-intuitive effects, e.g., indirect land-use changes occurring through the international market channel, substitution between production factors (fertilizer, pesticide, land, labor, capital etc.) affecting intensification and extensification processes, etc.

Different modelling tools are used: the global partial equilibrium model Nexus Land-Use (NLU – Souty et al., 2012) and the quantitative resource-use models GlobaAgri et Agribiom.


Brunelle, T., Dumas, P., Souty, F., Dorin, B. and Nadaud, F. (2015), Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields. Agricultural Economics. doi : 10.1111/agec.12161. Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12161/abstract
Souty, F., Brunelle, T., Dumas, P., Dorin, B., Ciais, P., Crassous, R., Müller, C., and Bondeau, A.. The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1297-1322, doi:10.5194/gmd-5-1297-2012, 2012

Researchers : Thierry Brunelle, Patrice Dumas, Bruno Dorin, Harold Levrel
PhD Students : Rémi Prudhomme