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Séminaire CIRED : S. De Cara

par Estelle Carciofi - publié le , mis à jour le

Résumé / Abstract

We assess how EU agriculture may cost-effectively contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, and analyze how this contribution varies in both space and time. This assessment is based on a supply-side micro-economic model of the European agricultural sector that represents farmers’ economic choices regarding crop allocation and livestock management for a set of farms representative of the diversity of agricultural conditions of production at the regional level in Europe. The model endogenously computes farm-level agricultural sources of methane and nitrous oxide emissions for a wide range of carbon prices and over a six-year period (2007-12). On average over this period, the results indicate that, for emission prices of 30, 100, and 180 EUR/tCO2eq, EU agriculture as a whole may reduce its emissions by approximately 10, 20, and 30%, respectively. These average results mask an important spatial variability in regional abatement rates achieved at given emission prices. As changes in the economic context and the local conditions of production impact both initial emissions and the opportunity cost of reducing these emissions, marginal abatement costalso vary in time. We take advantage of the large variability in agricultural input and output prices between 2007 and 2012 to quantify how marginal abatement costs curves were impacted at both the aggregated and regional level. We find in particular that, for a price of 100 EUR/tCO2eq, the EU-aggregated abatement rate would range from 16 to 25%., with spatial variations in how regional abatement rates respond to the same emission price over time.

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