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New CIRED Working Paper

par Arancha Sánchez - publié le

How sensitive are optimal fully renewable power systems to technology cost uncertainty ?


Behrang Shirizadeh, Quentin Perrier & Philippe Quirion


Abstract


Many studies have demonstrated the feasibility of fully renewable power systems in various countries and regions. Yet the future costs of key technologies are highly uncertain and little is known about the robustness of a renewable power system to these uncertainties. To analyze it, we build 315 long-term cost scenarios on the basis of recent prospective studies, varying the costs of key technologies, and we model the optimal renewable power system for France over 18 meteorological years, simultaneously optimizing investment and dispatch.


Our results show that the total cost of a 100% system is not that sensitive to the power mix chosen in 2050. Certainly, the optimal energy mix is highly sensitive to cost assumptions : the installed capacity in PV, onshore wind and power-to-gas varies by a factor of 5, batteries and offshore wind even more. But the total cost will not be higher than today, and choosing a non-optimal electrical mix does not significantly increase this total cost. Contrary to current estimates of integration costs, this indicates that renewable technologies will become by and large substitutable.


Keywords : Power system modelling ; Variable renewables ; Electricity storage ; Robust decision making.

Voir en ligne : http://www2.centre-cired.fr/IMG/pdf...